Cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination and self-isolation in case of H1N1

  • Authors:
  • Hamed Yarmand;Julie S. Ivy;Stephen D. Roberts;Mary W. Bengtson;Neal M. Bengtson

  • Affiliations:
  • North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC;North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC;North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC;North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC;School of Business, Barton College, Wilson, NC

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

In this research, we have conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to examine the relative importance of vaccination and self-isolation, with respect to the current H1N1 outbreak. We have developed a continuous-time simulation model for the spread of H1N1 which allows for three types of interventions: antiviral prophylaxis and treatment, vaccination, and self-isolation and mandatory quarantine. The optimization model consists of two decision variables: vaccination fraction and self-isolation fraction among infectives. By considering the relative marginal costs associated with each of these decision variables, we have a linear objective function representing the total relative cost for each control policy. We have also considered upper bound constraints for maximum number of individuals under treatment (which is related to surge capacity) and percentage of infected individuals (which determines the attack rate). We have used grid search to obtain insight into the model, find the feasible region, and conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis.