Short-Term spatio-temporal forecasts of web performance by means of turning bands method

Authors:
Leszek Borzemski;Michal Danielak;Anna Kaminska-Chuchmala
Affiliations:
Institute of Informatics, Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw, Poland;Institute of Informatics, Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw, Poland;Institute of Informatics, Wroclaw University of Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
Venue:
ICCCI'12 Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Computational Collective Intelligence: technologies and applications - Volume Part II
Year:
2012

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Abstract

This work presents Turning Bands simulation method (TB) as a geostatistical approach for making spatio-temporal forecasts of Web performance. The most significant advantage of this method is requirement for the minimum amount of input data to make accurate and detailed forecasts. For this paper, necessary data were obtained with the Multiagent Internet Measuring System (MWING); however, only those measurements of European servers that were collected by the MWING's agent in Gdansk were used. The aforementioned agent performed measurements (i.e. download times of the same given resource from the evaluated servers) three times every day, between 07.02.2009 and 28.02.2009, at 06:00 am, 12:00 pm and 06.00 pm. First, the preliminary and structural analyses of the measurement data were performed. Then short-term spatio-temporal forecasts of total downloading times for a four days ahead were made. And finally, thorough analysis of the obtained results was carried out and further research directions were proposed.