Supporting athlete selection and strategic planning in track cycling omnium: A statistical and machine learning approach

Authors:
Bahadorreza Ofoghi;John Zeleznikow;Clare Macmahon;Dan Dwyer
Affiliations:
Institute of Sport, Exercise, and Active Living, Victoria University, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia;School of Management and Information Systems, Victoria University, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia;School of Sport and Exercise Science, Victoria University, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia;School of Exercise and Nutrition Sciences, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria 3220, Australia
Venue:
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Year:
2013

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Abstract

This article describes the implementation of machine learning techniques that assist cycling experts in the crucial decision-making processes for athlete selection and strategic planning in the track cycling omnium. The omnium is a multi-event competition that was included in the Olympic Games for the first time in 2012. Presently, selectors and cycling coaches make decisions based on experience and opinion. They rarely have access to knowledge that helps predict athletic performances. The omnium presents a unique and complex decision-making challenge as it is not clear what type of athlete is best suited to the omnium (e.g., sprint or endurance specialist) and tactical decisions made by the coach and athlete during the event will have significant effects on the overall performance of the athlete. In the present work, a variety of machine learning techniques were used to analyze omnium competition data from the World Championships since 2007. The analysis indicates that sprint events have slightly more influence in determining the medalists, than endurance-based events. Using a probabilistic analysis, we created a model of performance prediction that provides an unprecedented level of supporting information that assists coaches with strategic and tactical decisions during the omnium.