Geographic profiling of criminal groups for military cordon and search

Authors:
Samuel H. Huddleston;Matthew S. Gerber;Donald E. Brown
Affiliations:
Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia;Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia;Department of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Virginia
Venue:
SBP'13 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction
Year:
2013

Citing 3
Cited 0

Spatial analysis with preference specification of latent decision makers for criminal event prediction

Decision Support Systems - Special issue: Intelligence and security informatics
A statistical threat assessment

IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans
A new point process transition density model for space-time event prediction

IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews

Quantified Score

Hi-index	0.00

Visualization

Abstract

In the course of counter-insurgency campaigns, military forces expend considerable resources and time conducting cordon and search operations in an effort to interdict and suppress criminal groups. However, these operations have a low success rate, with most operations yielding little intelligence or marginal tactical gains while simultaneously angering the local populace. This paper demonstrates methods for improving the success rate of cordon and search operations by leveraging Criminal Site Selection (CSS) models for geographic profiling. This new modeling approach provides statistically significant performance improvements over the current best method for geographic profiling and provides geographic profiles that are often accurate enough to facilitate tactical success, with the modeled criminal group's anchor point falling within the search profile for military unit cordon and search operations.