Model selection strategy for customer attrition risk prediction in retail banking

  • Authors:
  • Fan Li;Juan Lei;Ying Tian;Sakuna Punyapatthanakul;Yanbo J. Wang

  • Affiliations:
  • Information Management Center, China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd.;China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd.;Beijing Dongdan Sub-branch, China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd., Xicheng District, Beijing, China;KASIKORNBANK, Soi Rat Burana, Bangkok, Thailand;Information Management Center, China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. and Institute of Finance and Banking, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Jianguomennei Dajie, Beijing, China

  • Venue:
  • AusDM '11 Proceedings of the Ninth Australasian Data Mining Conference - Volume 121
  • Year:
  • 2011

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Abstract

Nowadays customer attrition is increasingly serious in commercial banks, particularly, high-valued customers in retail banking. Hence, it is encouraged to develop a prediction mechanism and identify such customers who might be at risk of attrition. This prediction mechanism can be considered to be a classifier. In particular, the problem of predicting risk of customer attrition can be prototyped as a binary classification task in data mining. In previous studies, a number of techniques have been introduced in (binary) classification study, i. e. artificial-based model, Bayesian-based model, case-based model, tree-based model, regression-based model, rule-based model, etc. With regards to a particular application --- predicting customer attrition risk for retail banking, this paper presents four principles in (classification) model selection. To support this model selection study, a set of experiments were run, based on a collection of real customer data in retail banking. These results and consequent recommendations are given in this paper.