Short-term wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid model

Authors:
Wenyu Zhang;Jujie Wang;Jianzhou Wang;Zengbao Zhao;Meng Tian
Affiliations:
Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China and Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and ...;Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China and Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and ...;School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China and Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and ...;Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China and Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and ...
Venue:
Applied Soft Computing
Year:
2013

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Abstract

Wind power is currently one of the types of renewable energy with a large generation capacity. However, operation of wind power generation is very challenging because of the intermittent and stochastic nature of the wind speed. Wind speed forecasting is a very important part of wind parks management and the integration of wind power into electricity grids. As an artificial intelligence algorithm, radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) has been successfully applied into solving forecasting problems. In this paper, a novel approach named WTT-SAM-RBFNN for short-term wind speed forecasting is proposed by applying wavelet transform technique (WTT) into hybrid model which hybrids the seasonal adjustment method (SAM) and the RBFNN. Real data sets of wind speed in Northwest China are used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of the proposed approach. To avoid the randomness caused by the RBFNN model or the RBFNN part of the hybrid model, all simulations in this study are repeated 30 times to get the average. Numerical results show that the WTT-SAM-RBFNN outperforms the persistence method (PM), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), RBFNN, hybrid SAM and RBFNN (SAM-RBFNN), and hybrid WTT and RBFNN (WTT-RBFNN). It is concluded that the proposed approach is an effective way to improve the prediction accuracy.