Utility discounting explains informational website traffic patterns before a hurricane

  • Authors:
  • Ben Priest;Kevin Gold

  • Affiliations:
  • MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, USA;MIT Linocln Laboratory, Lexington, MA, USA

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on World Wide Web companion
  • Year:
  • 2013

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Abstract

We demonstrate that psychological models of utility discounting can explain the pattern of increased hits to weather websites in the days preceding a predicted weather disaster. We parsed the HTTP request lines issued by the web proxy for a mid-sized enterprise leading up to a hurricane, filtering for visits to weather-oriented websites. We fit four discounting models to the observed activity and found that our data matched hyperboloid models extending hyperbolic discounting.