Using a rate equations approach to model World population trends

  • Authors:

  • Julio A Gonzalo;Felix-Fernando Muñoz;David J Santos

  • Affiliations:

  • Department of Materials Physics, Faculty of Science, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain;Department of Economic Analysis: Economic Theory and Economic History, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain;CEU-San Pablo, Escuela Politécnica Superior, Madrid, Spain

  • Venue:
  • Simulation
  • Year:
  • 2013

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Abstract

According to UN data and projections, the World population will begin to decrease by the middle of this century. This paper uses rate equations (fully analogous to those employed in condensed matter physics) to simulate the time evolution of World population, making use of UN population data in the time interval 1900-2010, and to extrapolate the evolution of World population into the near future. This approach has not been used in economics and population dynamics. The simulation predicts a population decline by mid-century. The economic consequences of a population decline would be far reaching.