Some insights of using common random numbers in selection procedures

  • Authors:
  • E. Jack Chen

  • Affiliations:
  • BASF Corporation, Florham Park, USA 07932

  • Venue:
  • Discrete Event Dynamic Systems
  • Year:
  • 2013

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Abstract

Indifference-zone selection procedures have been widely studied and applied to determine the sample sizes for selecting a good system or a subset of good systems among k alternative systems. It is known that using common random numbers can increase efficiency of simulation procedures, but using common random numbers may also "backfire." We show that it is generally safe to use common random numbers to increase the probability of correct selection with Dudewicz and Dalal's procedure as well as its extension for subset selection when common random numbers are properly synchronized, even though these selection procedures are derived based on independent sampling. The result is derived with correlated order statistics in a concise manner, namely, the expected value of the first-order statistic becomes larger as the (positive) covariances become stronger. We perform simulation experiments to confirm this finding.