Three-and-six-month-before forecast of water resources in a karst aquifer in the Terminio massif (Southern Italy)

  • Authors:
  • Salvatore Rampone

  • Affiliations:
  • -

  • Venue:
  • Applied Soft Computing
  • Year:
  • 2013

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Abstract

The ability of artificial neural networks (ANN) to model the rainfall-discharge relationships of karstic aquifers has been studied in the Terminio massif (Southern Italy), which supplies the Naples area with a yearly mean discharge of approximately 1-3.5m^3/s. The Mediterranean climate causes a rapid increase in evapotranspiration and a decrease in rainfall towards spring-summer. Especially during drought, and in combination with highly sensitive climatic parameters, there are dramatic changes in the discharge amount especially during the July and August months. A neural network model was developed based on MLP (multi-layer perceptron) network to forecast of water resources three and six month before the main stress months of July and August. Example data were extracted on an ultra-centenarian hydrological serial. The training and validation phases, confirmed by a ten fold cross validation methodology, led to a very satisfactory calibration of the ANN model, with errors in forecasting discharge values of just 5% (three months before) and 10% (six months before).