Improving route prediction through user journey detection

  • Authors:
  • Mark Dimond;Gavin Smith;James Goulding

  • Affiliations:
  • Nottingham Geospatial Institute, Nottingham, UK;Horizon Digital Economy Research, Nottingham, UK;Horizon Digital Economy Research, Nottingham, UK

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 21st ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems
  • Year:
  • 2013

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Abstract

The positioning datasets that underpin route prediction models arrive as time series or point process logs. However, their use for prediction requires them to be split into meaningful segments, conceptualised as travelling periods or 'journeys', to form a set of training inputs. Despite significant research into route prediction, this important pre-processing step has traditionally occurred in an ad-hoc fashion, using arbitrary connectivity or movement thresholds. There has been little consideration to date of the impact of this on prediction, a fact rectified in this work. Three methods for detection of journeys are evaluated using a dataset of labelled movement histories collected specifically for this investigation. We perform an exhaustive series of parameterisations of detection methods, optimising with respect to actual journeys specified by users. We find that using existing methods, GPS multipath artefacts introduce journey extraction error that raises concern for prediction applications. A new approach is presented that explicitly uses these effects to improve journey detection results.