Weighted regret-based likelihood: a new approach to describing uncertainty

  • Authors:
  • Joseph Y. Halpern

  • Affiliations:
  • Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

  • Venue:
  • ECSQARU'13 Proceedings of the 12th European conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty
  • Year:
  • 2013

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Abstract

Recently, Halpern and Leung [8] suggested representing uncertainty by a weighted set of probability measures, and suggested a way of making decisions based on this representation of uncertainty: maximizing weighted regret. Their paper does not answer an apparently simpler question: what it means, according to this representation of uncertainty, for an event E to be more likely than an event E′. In this paper, a notion of comparative likelihood when uncertainty is represented by a weighted set of probability measures is defined. It generalizes the ordering defined by probability (and by lower probability) in a natural way; a generalization of upper probability can also be defined. A complete axiomatic characterization of this notion of regret-based likelihood is given.