Zero variance Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian estimators

  • Authors:
  • Antonietta Mira;Reza Solgi;Daniele Imparato

  • Affiliations:
  • Swiss Finance Institute, University of Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland 6904;Swiss Finance Institute, University of Lugano, Lugano, Switzerland 6904;Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy 21100

  • Venue:
  • Statistics and Computing
  • Year:
  • 2013

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC estimator, based on the zero-variance principle introduced in the physics literature, is proposed. Conditions for asymptotic unbiasedness of the zero-variance estimator are derived. A central limit theorem is also proved under regularity conditions. The potential of the idea is illustrated with real applications to probit, logit and GARCH Bayesian models. For all these models, a central limit theorem and unbiasedness for the zero-variance estimator are proved (see the supplementary material available on-line).