Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
A tutorial on learning with Bayesian networks
Learning in graphical models
AAAI '99/IAAI '99 Proceedings of the sixteenth national conference on Artificial intelligence and the eleventh Innovative applications of artificial intelligence conference innovative applications of artificial intelligence
A review of accident modelling approaches for complex socio-technical systems
SCS '07 Proceedings of the twelfth Australian workshop on Safety critical systems and software and safety-related programmable systems - Volume 86
Modeling and Reasoning with Bayesian Networks
Modeling and Reasoning with Bayesian Networks
A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection
IJCAI'95 Proceedings of the 14th international joint conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 2
Theory refinement on Bayesian networks
UAI'91 Proceedings of the Seventh conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
A proposed validation framework for expert elicited Bayesian Networks
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
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The paper utilizes Port State Control inspection data for discovering interactions between the numbers of various types of deficiencies found on ships and between the deficiencies and ship's involvement in maritime traffic accidents and incidents. Bayesian network models for describing the dependencies of the inspection results, ship age, type, flag, accident involvement, and incidents reported by the Vessel Traffic Service are learned from the Finnish Port State Control data from 2009-2011, 2004-2010 Baltic Sea accident statistics and the reported Gulf of Finland Vessel Traffic Service incidents within 2004-2008. Two alternative Bayesian network algorithms are applied to the model construction. Further, additional models including a hidden variable which represents the complete system and its safety features and which links the accident and incident involvement and Port State Control findings are presented. Based on model-data fit comparisons and 10-fold cross-validation, a constraint-based learning algorithm NPC mainly outperforms the score-based algorithm repeated hill-climbing with random restarts. For the highest scoring models, mutual information and influence of evidence analyses are conducted in order to analyze which network variables and variable states are the most influential ones for determining the accident involvement. The analyses suggest that knowledge on ship type, the Port State Control inspection type and the number of structural conditions related deficiencies are among the ones providing the most information regarding accident involvement and the true state of the hidden system safety variable.