A forecasting model for small non-equigap data sets considering data weights and occurrence possibilities

Authors:
Che-Jung Chang;Der-Chiang Li;Chien-Chih Chen;Chia-Sheng Chen
Affiliations:
Department of Business Administration, Chung Yuan Christian University, No. 200, Chung-Pei Road, Chung-Li City, Taoyuan County 32023, Taiwan, ROC;Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Chen Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan, ROC;Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Chen Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan, ROC;Department of Industrial and Information Management, National Chen Kung University, No. 1, University Road, Tainan City 70101, Taiwan, ROC
Venue:
Computers and Industrial Engineering
Year:
2014

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Abstract

In the early stages of manufacturing systems, it is often difficult to obtain sufficient data to make accurate forecasts. Grey system theory is one of the approaches to deal with this issue, as it uses fairly small sets to construct forecasting models. Among published grey models, the current non-equigap grey models can deal with data having unequal gaps, and have been applied in various fields. However, these models usually use fixed modeling procedures that do not consider data growth trend differences. This paper utilizes the trend and potency tracking method to determine the parameter @a of the background value to build an adaptive non-equigap grey model to improve forecasting performance. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method considers that data occurrence properties can obtain better forecasting results.