First passage time and first passage percolation models for analysing network resilience and effective strategies in strategic information warfare research: a brief survey and perspective

  • Authors:
  • Zhanshan Ma

  • Affiliations:
  • Computational Biology and Medical Ecology Lab, State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, 650223, China/ Departmen ...

  • Venue:
  • International Journal of Information and Computer Security
  • Year:
  • 2013

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Abstract

We argue for the applications of first passage time FPT and first passage percolation FPP problems to the modelling and analysis of network resilience as well as effective strategies in strategic information warfare SIW. Several intuitive arguments can be readily made to justify our attempt. First, winning a confrontation can be abstracted as an FPT or FPP problem. Secondly, information warfare is very similar to the directed percolation. Thirdly, three essential metrics in the FPP theory, percolation critical probability Pc, first passage percolation time, and shape set Bt can be mapped to the probability to win or lose the war, network resilience, and effective strike range, respectively. Fourthly, non-linearity is prevalent in SIW; percolation theory, and complexity science in large, are particularly effective in tackling this critical issue. To the best of our knowledge, this should be the first review on applying FPT and FPP theories to the SIW research.