Empirical validation of the Classic Change Curve on a software technology change project
Information and Software Technology
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S-curves analysis allows to study evolution and trends in specific technological fields; its theoretical background establishes that in order to achieve the best results the analysis must be done using an independent variable that shows the effort invested in R&D activities and a dependent variable that shows the cumulative performance in that field. Actually, S-curves are built using time as independent variable because of the constraints associated in the search of investment data. This paper examines the use of patent data applications as a sample of effort; using geothermal field as a case study, it was possible to test the relationship of Patent applications and investment (R-squared, 0.86), in first place, and the construction of S-curves using patent applications count against performance (R-Squared, 0.947). Results show a high correspondence value and potential of using patent counts to direct technological performance studies.