Comparing large number of metaheuristics for artificial neural networks training to predict water temperature in a natural river

• Authors: Adam P. Piotrowski;Marzena Osuch;Maciej J. Napiorkowski;Pawel M. Rowinski;Jaroslaw J. Napiorkowski
• Venue: Computers & Geosciences
• Year: 2014

Nature-inspired metaheuristics found various applications in different fields of science, including the problem of artificial neural networks (ANN) training. However, very versatile opinions regarding the performance of metaheuristics applied to ANN training may be found in the literature. Both nature-inspired metaheuristics and ANNs are widely applied to various geophysical and environmental problems. Among them the water temperature forecasting in a natural river, especially in colder climate zones where the seasonality plays important role, is of great importance, as water temperature has strong impact on aquatic life and chemistry. As the impact of possible future climate change on water temperature is not trivial, models are needed to allow projection of streamwater temperature based on simple hydro-meteorological variables. In this paper the detailed comparison of the performance of nature-inspired optimization methods and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm in ANNs training is performed, based on the case study of water temperature forecasting in a natural stream, namely Biala Tarnowska river in southern Poland. Over 50 variants of 22 various metaheuristics, including a large number of Differential Evolution, as well as some Particle Swarm Optimization, Evolution Strategies, multialgorithms and Direct Search methods are compared with LM algorithm on ANN training for the described case study. The impact of population size and some control parameters of particular metaheuristics on the ANN training performance are verified. It is found that despite widely claimed large improvement in nature-inspired methods during last years, the vast majority of them are still outperformed by LM algorithm on the selected problem. The only methods that, based on this case study, seem competitive to LM algorithm in terms of the final performance (but not speed) are Differential Evolution algorithms that benefit from the concept of Global and Local neighborhood-based mutation operators. The streamwater forecasting performance of the neural networks is adequate, the major prediction errors are related to the river freezing and melting processes that occur during winter in the mountainous catchment under study.