Splitting for rare event simulation: analysis of simple cases

  • Authors:
  • Paul Glasserman;Philip Heidelberger;Perwez Shahabuddin;Tim Zajic

  • Affiliations:
  • Columbia University, New York, NY;IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY;Columbia University, New York, NY;Columbia University, New York, NY & IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY

  • Venue:
  • WSC '96 Proceedings of the 28th conference on Winter simulation
  • Year:
  • 1996

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Abstract

An approach to rare event simulation uses the technique of splitting. The basic idea is to split sample paths of the stochastic process into multiple copies when they approach closer to the rare set; this increases the overall number of hits to the rare set for a given amount of simulation time. This paper analyzes the bias and efficiency of some simple cases of this method.