Sensitivity analysis via likelihood ratios

  • Authors:
  • Martin I. Reiman;Alan Weiss

  • Affiliations:
  • AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey;AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey

  • Venue:
  • WSC '86 Proceedings of the 18th conference on Winter simulation
  • Year:
  • 1986

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Abstract

We present a new method of obtaining derivatives of expectations with respect to various parameters. For example, if &lgr; is the rate of a Poisson process, NT is the number of Poisson events in (0, T),and &psgr; is nearly any function of the sample path (e.g. a performance measure in a queuing network), then we show that d/d&lgr; E&lgr;(&psgr;) = E&lgr; ((NT/&lgr; - T)&psgr;), which yields an obvious algorithm. We have proven that the method works for a wide class of parameters and performance measures in regenerative simulation. We also report on the method's limitations and on some numerical experiments.