Evaluation of prediction models for marketing campaigns

  • Authors:
  • Saharon Rosset;Einat Neumann;Uri Eick;Nurit Vatnik;Izhak Idan

  • Affiliations:
  • Amdocs Ltd. and Stanford University;Amdocs (Israel) Ltd. and Tel-Aviv University;Amdocs (Israel) Ltd.;Amdocs (Israel) Ltd.;Amdocs (Israel) Ltd.

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the seventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
  • Year:
  • 2001

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Abstract

We consider prediction-model evaluation in the context of marketing-campaign planning. In order to evaluate and compare models with specific campaign objectives in mind, we need to concentrate our attention on the appropriate evaluation-criteria. These should portray the model's ability to score accurately and to identify the relevant target population. In this paper we discuss some applicable model-evaluation and selection criteria, their relevance for campaign planning, their robustness under changing population distributions, and their employment when constructing confidence intervals. We illustrate our results with a case study based on our experience from several projects.