Probabilistic Reasoning Under Coherence in System P

• Authors: Angelo Gilio
• Venue: Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence
• Year: 2002

In this paper we apply a probabilistic reasoning under coherence to System P. We consider a notion of strict probabilistic consistency, we show its equivalence to Adams' probabilistic consistency, and we give a necessary and sufficient condition for probabilistic entailment. We consider the inference rules of System P in the framework of coherent imprecise probabilistic assessments. Exploiting our coherence-based approach, we propagate the lower and upper probability bounds associated with the conditional assertions of a given knowledge base, obtaining the precise probability bounds for the derived conclusions of the inference rules. This allows a more flexible and realistic use of System P in default reasoning and provides an exact illustration of the degradation of the inference rules when interpreted in probabilistic terms. We also examine the idisjunctive Weak Rational Monotony rule of System P+ proposed by Adams in his extended probabilistic logic. Finally, we examine the propagation of lower bounds with real ϵ-values and, to illustrate our probabilistic reasoning, we consider an example.