Tabu Search When Noise is Present: An Illustration inthe Context of Cause and Effect Analysis

  • Authors:
  • Daniel Costa;Edward A. Silver

  • Affiliations:
  • Groupe de Statistique, Université de Neuchâtel, 2002 Neuchâtel, Switzerland;Faculty of Management, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, T2N 1N4

  • Venue:
  • Journal of Heuristics
  • Year:
  • 1998

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Abstract

In the field of combinatorial optimization, it may be possible tomore accurately represent reality through stochastic models rather thandeterministic ones. When randomness is present in a problem, algorithmdesigners face new difficulties which complicate their task significantly.Finding a proper mathematical formulation and a fast evaluation of theobjective function are two major issues. In this paper we propose a new tabusearch algorithm based on sampling and statistical tests. The algorithm isshown to perform well in a stochastic environment where the quality offeasible solutions cannot be computed easily. This new search principle isillustrated in the field of cause and effect analysis where the true causeof an undesirable effect needs to be eliminated. A set of npotential causes is identified and each of them is assumed to be the truecause with a given probability. The time to investigate a cause is a randomvariable with a known probability distribution. Associated with each causeis the reward obtained if the cause is really the true cause. The decisionproblem is to sequence the n potential causes so as to maximizethe expected reward realized before a specified time horizon.