Reparameterization strategies for hidden Markov models and Bayesian approaches to maximum likelihood estimation

  • Authors:
  • Christian P. Robert;D. M. Titterington

  • Affiliations:
  • Laboratoire de Statistique, CREST, INSEE, Timbre J340, 92245 Malakoff cedex, France;Department of Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, Scotland, UK

  • Venue:
  • Statistics and Computing
  • Year:
  • 1998

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Abstract

This paper synthesizes a global approach to both Bayesian and likelihood treatments of the estimation of the parameters of a hidden Markov model in the cases of normal and Poisson distributions. The first step of this global method is to construct a non-informative prior based on a reparameterization of the model; this prior is to be considered as a penalizing and bounding factor from a likelihood point of view. The second step takes advantage of the special structure of the posterior distribution to build up a simple Gibbs algorithm. The maximum likelihood estimator is then obtained by an iterative procedure replicating the original sample until the corresponding Bayes posterior expectation stabilizes on a local maximum of the original likelihood function.