An analysis of the influence of some prior specifications in the identification of change points via product partition model

  • Authors:
  • R. H. Loschi;F. R. B. Cruz

  • Affiliations:
  • Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil;Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil

  • Venue:
  • Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
  • Year:
  • 2002

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Abstract

In this paper, we consider the product partition model for the estimation of normal means and variances of a sequence of observations that experiences changes in these parameters at unknown times. The estimates of the parameters by using product partition model are the weighted average of the estimates based in blocks (groups) of observations by the posterior relevance of these blocks which depends on the prior cohesions. We implement the Barry and Hartigan's method to this change point problem and propose an easy-to-implement modification to their method. We use Yao's prior cohesions and investigate the influence of different prior distributions to the parameter that indexes these cohesions in the product estimates. A comparison between the estimates obtained by using both these methods and those provided by using Yao's method is done considering different settings for its application. We apply the three methods presented in this paper to stock market data. The results seem to indicate that the method proposed is competitive and also that the prior specifications influence in the product estimates.