Soft computing based techniques for short-term load forecasting

Authors:
V. S. Kodogiannis;E. M. Anagnostakis
Affiliations:
Department of Computer Science, University of Westminster, Watford Road, Northwick Park, Harrow, Middx., HA1 3TP, UK;Department of Computer Science, University of Westminster, Watford Road, Northwick Park, Harrow, Middx., HA1 3TP, UK
Venue:
Fuzzy Sets and Systems - Clustering and modeling
Year:
2002

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Abstract

Neural networks are currently finding practical applications, ranging from 'soft' regulatory control in consumer products to accurate modelling of non-linear systems. This paper presents the development of improved neural networks based short-term electric load forecasting models for the power system of the Greek Island of Crete. Several approaches including radial basis function networks, dynamic neural networks have been considered. In addition, a novel approach, based on neural-fuzzy approach has been proposed and discussed in this paper. Their performances are evaluated through a simulation study, using metered data provided by the Greek Public Power Corporation. The results indicate that the load forecasting models developed provide more accurate forecasts compared to the conventional backpropagation network forecasting models. Finally, the embedding of the new model capability in a modular forecasting system is presented.