International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
On the principles of fuzzy neural networks
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Neurofuzzy adaptive modelling and control
Neurofuzzy adaptive modelling and control
A genetic algorithm for generating fuzzy classification rules
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Generating a Macroeconomic Fuzzy Forecasting System using Evolutionary Search
RSFDGrC '99 Proceedings of the 7th International Workshop on New Directions in Rough Sets, Data Mining, and Granular-Soft Computing
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Macroeconomic forecasting has traditionally been performed with the use of econometric tools though these methods necessarily make many theoretical assumptions that are not valid in all circumstances. The main advantage of the use of approaches that apply machine learning algorithms to economic data is that forecasts largely free of assumptions can be made. This study presents an approach to macro economic forecasting that generates fuzzy rules from data using a fuzzy control system architecture and evolutionary programming. However, the selection of a defuzification method is typically performed subjectively in fuzzy control systems. We demonstrate that the selection of defuzification method makes a substantial impact on forecasts. In order to overcome this subjectivity and further enhance our objectives of developing forecasting systems free of any technical or theoretical assumptions we introduce a neural network to perform the defuzification. The performance of our approach compares very favourably with other data mining techniques on cross validation tests with macro economic data.