Error Functions for Prediction of Episodes of Poor Air Quality

  • Authors:
  • Robert J. Foxall;Gavin C. Cawley;Stephen R. Dorling;Danilo P. Mandic

  • Affiliations:
  • -;-;-;-

  • Venue:
  • ICANN '02 Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks
  • Year:
  • 2002

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Abstract

Prediction of episodes of poor air quality using artificial neural networks is investigated. Logistic regression,con ventional sumof-squares regression and heteroscedastic sum-of-squares regression are employed for the task of predicting real-life episodes of poor air quality in urban Belfast due to SO2. In each case,a Bayesian regularisation scheme is used to prevent over-fitting of the training data and to provide pruning of redundant model parameters. Non-linear models assuming a heteroscedastic Gaussian noise process are shown to provide the best predictors of pollutant concentration of the methods investigated.