Varieties of ignorance and the need for well-founded theories
Information Sciences: an International Journal - Special issue on information sciences—past, present, and future
Artificial Intelligence
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The purpose of this paper is to introduce a way to deal with uncertainties in risk analysis. Risk analysis is a key process in security management in that its result provides a decision-basis for safeguard implementation. However, it must often rely on speculation, educated guesses, incomplete data, and many unproven assumptions. Users of risk analysis often provide their uncertain subjective opinions as input values to risk analysis. Therefore, the consideration of uncertainties in input data should be made when performing a risk analysis. As a tool for expressing and dealing with uncertainties in input data, we suggest the use of belief functions. Weprovide examples of how to use belief functions in qualitative risk analysis methods.