Some patterns of technological change in high-performance computers

Authors:
J. Worlton
Affiliations:
Worlton & Associates, 3089 Villa, Los Alamos, NM
Venue:
Proceedings of the 1988 ACM/IEEE conference on Supercomputing
Year:
1988

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Abstract

High-performance computer technology is undergoing a period of unusually rapid change, and this paper attempts to describe the patterns of these changes in a systematic way. Pattern recognition is the basis of technology forecasting, and it is through technology forecasting that we obtain the anticipatory information that allows us to avoid problems and create opportunities. We will first identify the stages in which technological changes occur, and then define “change” as the first derivative of an information function that describes the state of a technology. We then explore the driving forces that cause three generic patterns of technological change: incremental, exponential, and logistic. Some areas in high-performance computer technology that are following these patterns are then identified, and a forecast is developed. Finally, some limits of high-performance computing are discussed.