Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches to Reasoning under Uncertainty in Medical Decision Making

Authors:
John Fox;David Glasspool;Jonathan Bury
Affiliations:
-;-;-
Venue:
AIME '01 Proceedings of the 8th Conference on AI in Medicine in Europe: Artificial Intelligence Medicine
Year:
2001

Citing 7
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Abstract

Medical decision making frequently requires the effective management and communication of uncertainty and risk. However a tension exists between classical probability theory, which is precise and rigorous but which people find non-intuitive and difficult to use, and qualitative approaches which are ad hoc but can be more versatile and easily comprehensible. In this paper we review a range of approaches to uncertainty management, then describe a logical approach, argumentation, which subsumes qualitative as well as quantitative representations and has a clear formal semantics. The approach is illustrated and evaluated in five decision support applications.