Modeling Exchange Rate Behaviorwith a Genetic Algorithm

  • Authors:
  • C. Lawrenz;F. Westerhoff

  • Affiliations:
  • WestLB, Germany;University of Osnabrueck, Department of Economics, Rolandstrasse 8, D-49069 Osnabrueck, Germany/ E-mail: fwesterho@oec.uni-osnabrueck.de

  • Venue:
  • Computational Economics
  • Year:
  • 2003

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Abstract

Motivated by empirical evidence, we construct a model where heterogeneous, boundedly-rational market participants rely on a mix of technical and fundamental trading rules. The rules are applied according to a weighting scheme. Traders evaluate and update their mix of rules by genetic algorithm learning. Even for fundamental shocks with a low probability, the interaction between the traders produces a complex behavior of exchange rates. Our model simultaneously produces several stylized facts like high volatility, unit roots in the exchange rates, a fuzzy relationship between news and exchange-rate movements, cointegration between the exchange rate and its fundamental value, fat tails for returns, a declining kurtosis under time aggregation, weak evidence of mean reversion, and strong evidence of clustering in both volatility and trading volume.