Public administration and health care: preterm birth prediction

  • Authors:
  • Linda K. Goodwin;Jerzy W. Grzymala-Busse

  • Affiliations:
  • Director, Nursing Informatics Program, and Informatics Scientist, Community and Family Medicine, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina;Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Kansas, Lawrence

  • Venue:
  • Handbook of data mining and knowledge discovery
  • Year:
  • 2002

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Abstract

Accurately predicting which pregnant women are at risk for giving birth prematurely, or preterm, is a difficult problem in health care. Medical science and research have not offered viable solutions for the prematurity problem. The most persistent limitation for preterm birth risk assessment is our continued lack of understanding about the causes of preterm birth. Data mining and knowledge discovery in database tools are being applied with improved outcomes for predicting birth outcomes in pregnant women. In this project, completed in 1992-1993, three large prenatal databases were acquired. Each database was divided into two halves: 50 percent for training data and 50 percent for testing data. Each data set was then analyzed using statistical and machine learning programs. The best predictive accuracy was accomplished using the system LERS (Learning from Examples using Rough Sets). Manual methods of assessing preterm birth have a positive predictive value of 17 to 38 percent. The data mining methods based on LERS reached a positive predictive value of 59 to 92 percent.