A bibliometric system which really works
Journal of the American Society for Information Science
The Markov and the mixed-Poisson models of library circulation compared
Journal of Documentation
Using the Gamma-Poisson model to predict library circulations
Journal of the American Society for Information Science
Predictive aspects of a stochastic model for citation processes
Information Processing and Management: an International Journal
Cumulative advantage and success-breeds-success: the value of time pattern analysis
Journal of the American Society for Information Science - Special issue: knowledge discovery and data mining
Stochastic processes
Will this paper ever be cited?
Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
Modeling citation behavior in management science journals
Information Processing and Management: an International Journal - Special issue: Informetrics
Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
Sequential result refinement for searching the biomedical literature
Journal of Biomedical Informatics
Alternative thoughts on uncitedness
Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
Limited validity of equations to predict the future h index
Scientometrics
| Hi-index | 0.00 |
In this article we further develop the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. More precisely, we investigate the conditional distribution--and its mean-- of the number of citations to a paper after time t, given the number of citations it has received up to time t. In an important parametric case it is shown that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, this being interpretable as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon.