A Bayesian Network Datamining Approach for Modelling the Physical Condition of Copper Access Networks

  • Authors:
  • D. Yearling;D. J. Hand

  • Affiliations:
  • -;-

  • Venue:
  • BT Technology Journal
  • Year:
  • 2003

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Abstract

With delivery of higher quality broadband services to residential customers via the copper access network, physical fitness of the plant is vital for meeting service obligations. Consequently, we need to quickly identify any poorly performing plant within what has become an aging geographically heterogeneous network. Intuitively simple approaches based on fault counts or electrical measurements may seem effective. Although they can lead to initial quick wins by picking out the worst, they soon become ineffective, failing to identify the ‘next worse’ cases. We clarify the problem, and then use a Bayesian network to construct a causal structure for fault propagation. The probabilistic structure is learnt without supervision to provide a unique view of the fault process for each item of plant. This can then be used to identify vulnerable plant and infers the causal mechanism for their respective susceptibility. Apart from helping to determine where the money should be spent, it also provides a straightforward way of estimating important cost aspects relating to programmes of improvement and quality reforms.