Initial Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality in Electric Power System Blackouts

Authors:
B. A. Carreras;A. B. Poole;D. E. Newman;I. Dobson
Affiliations:
-;-;-;-
Venue:
HICSS '00 Proceedings of the 33rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences-Volume 4 - Volume 4
Year:
2000

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Abstract

We examine correlations in a time series of electric power system blackout sizes using scaled window variance analysis and R/S statistics. The data shows some evidence of long time correlations and has Hurst exponent near 0.7. Large blackouts tend to correlate with further large blackouts after a long time interval. Similar effects are also observed in many other complex systems exhibiting self-organized criticality. We discuss this initial evidence and possible explanations for self-organized criticality in power systems blackouts. Self-organized criticality, if fully confirmed in power systems, would suggest new approaches to understanding and possibly controlling blackouts.