The “tell-us-the-answer-you-want” problem

  • Authors:

  • David E. Barnett

  • Affiliations:

  • The Standard Oil Company (Ohio), 663 Guildhall Building, Cleveland, Ohio

  • Venue:
  • WSC '83 Proceedings of the 15th conference on Winter simulation - Volume 1
  • Year:
  • 1983

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Abstract

This paper describes a simulation model of the Trans-Panama Pipeline. The pipeline is used to transport crude oil between tankers in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The model represents in many senses a classical queuing system, with vessel delay times at the Pacific and Atlantic terminal facilities the critical responses of interest. The paper focuses on the modeling of vessel arrivals. Actual data on vessel arrivals show that interarrival times are exponentially distributed. However, due to human scheduling the number of arrivals within any 15-day planning period equals the expected number. Since the number of arrivals generated by the exponential distribution can deviate substantially from the expected number, an alternative modeling technique is needed. The technique used to model this pattern of arrivals is described in this paper.