Global Crop Production Forecasting: A simulation analysis of the data system problems and their solutions

  • Authors:
  • Harvey Golden;James W. Neiers

  • Affiliations:
  • -;-

  • Venue:
  • WSC '78 Proceedings of the 10th conference on Winter simulation - Volume 2
  • Year:
  • 1978

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Abstract

Marshall Space Flight Center has been analyzing the NASA long-term objective of providing by 1985 a bi-weekly Global Crop Production Forecast of major crops having worldwide food and/or economic significance. The goal of this analysis was to determine probable data related issues in achieving this objective and the recommendation of alternatives for their resolution. A quantification of the data volumes and the acquisition expectation for different system configurations are essential to establishing realistic design parameters. The required information must be obtained at precise times during the growing seasons. The opportunities are limited by the orbital mechanics of the satellites by climatological conditions. The use of simulation to combine the dynamics of crop phenology, cloud probabilities, and orbital dynamics to obtain a faithful representation of data acquisition and processing performance is discussed in this paper along with some results.