PERT and simulation

  • Authors:
  • David E. Douglas

  • Affiliations:
  • -

  • Venue:
  • WSC '78 Proceedings of the 10th conference on Winter simulation - Volume 1
  • Year:
  • 1978

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Abstract

PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) is a network planning technique used to plan, schedule, and control projects. Unlike the CPM (Critical Path Method) which assumes actual project activity times are deterministic, PERT views the actual performance time for an activity as a random variable. The conventional PERT procedure ignores all subcritical paths which leads to an optimistically biased estimate of the expected earliest occurrence time for the network events. The most promising approach to solving this problem (called the merge event bias problem) appears to be simulation.