Simulation of an individual making decisions under uncertainty

  • Authors:
  • Francis D. Tuggle;F. Hutton Barron;Richard O. Day

  • Affiliations:
  • -;-;-

  • Venue:
  • WSC '73 Proceedings of the 6th conference on Winter simulation
  • Year:
  • 1973

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Abstract

A computer simulation model, SIDIP (Simulation of Individual Decisions through Information Processing), of a person making nine decisions under uncertainty is sketched. Eight of a subject's (S's) choices are consistent with the Laplace or maximize expected value criteria and S's other is consistent with the Savage (minimax regret) criterion (see Luce and Raiffa, 1957). SIDIP implies that the subject does not use the conventional computational processes dictated by those criteria. SIDIP reproduces S's articulated choice behavior: inconsistent use of choice criteria, rejection of some alternatives, and eventual choice from the preferred alternatives. Analysis of information processing models of suboptimal decision behavior suggests operational techniques by which decision making can be improved.