Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Communicating Analytic Results: A Tutorial for Decision Consultants
Decision Analysis
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This paper presents the current state of evolution of a language for teaching and practicing decision analysis that may avoid confusion of students, clients, and ourselves. Many of the terms currently used are inaccurate, arcane, or unnecessary. Restricting decision language to terms that are accurate, familiar, and fundamental contributes to clarity of thought and understanding. To illustrate the type of changes advocated, I propose replacingdependence withrelevance,expectation withe-value,utility withu-value, and eschewingsubjective probability,confidence,uncertainty about probability, any distinction betweenrisk and uncertainty, andstates of nature. I show how to incorporate the new terminology in teaching and practice.