The magic number eighteen plus or minus three: a study of software technology maturation

Authors:
William E. Riddle
Affiliations:
Software design & analysis, inc., Boulder, Colorado
Venue:
ACM SIGSOFT Software Engineering Notes
Year:
1984

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Abstract

It is commonly thought that 10 years is needed for technology to pass from its initial conception into wide-spread use. In the process of gathering data to argue the need for a technology improvement program, we investigated the technology maturation process for three environments supporting software development. Our hypothesis was that more than 10 years was needed; our guess was that the period would be more on the order of 15 years; and we found that it takes on the order of 18 years for systems such as these to nature. Technology maturation time lines for the three systems are presented and some comments are provided on what facilitates and inhibits software technology maturation.