Marketing Science
Promotion Effect on Endogenous Consumption
Marketing Science
Accounting for Primary and Secondary Demand Effects with Aggregate Data
Marketing Science
Optimal Data Interval for Estimating Advertising Response
Marketing Science
Estimating Cannibalization Rates for Pioneering Innovations
Marketing Science
An Investigation of Earnings Management Through Marketing Actions
Management Science
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Marketing Science
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Sales promotions generate substantial short-term sales increases. To determine whether the sales promotion bump is truly beneficial from a managerial perspective, we propose a system of store-level regression models that decomposes the sales promotion bump into three parts: cross-brand effects (secondary demand), cross-period effects (primary demand borrowed from other time periods), and category-expansion effects (remaining primary demand). Across four store-level scanner datasets, we find that each of these three parts contribute about one third on average. One extension we propose is the separation of the category-expansion effect into cross-store and market-expansion effects. Another one is to split the cross-item effect (total across all other items) into cannibalization and between-brand effects. We also allow for a flexible decomposition by allowing all effects to depend on the feature/display support condition and on the magnitude of the price discount. The latter dependence is achieved by local polynomial regression. We find that feature-supported price discounts are strongly associated with cross-period effects while display-only supported price discounts have especially strong category-expansion effects. While the role of the category-expansion effect tends to increase with higher price discounts, the roles of cross-brand and cross-period effects both tend to decrease.