Simulation with Arena
Using simulation analysis for mining project risk management
Winter Simulation Conference
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The present work focuses on the development of a simulation method which provides an engineering tool for managing the risks associated with the development of an oil field. The developed method consists of performing discrete simulation based on data from field operations. The paper reports and discusses the simulation results of a real field development which lead to the following highlights: The operations that present the highest level of risk are emphasized and studied for defining their impact on costs. The consequences of some deviations from the preplanned schedule are evaluated in terms of increasing the total amount of the investment. The possible gains and risks associated with the use of some emerging technologies are analyzed. This study shows that this methodology is an useful tool for providing relevant information to contracts negotiation with suppliers and drilling contractors.