Simulation input modeling: prior and candidate models in the Bayesian analysis of finite mixtures

  • Authors:
  • Russell C. H. Cheng;Christine S. M. Currie

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Southampton, Southampton, U.K.;University of Southampton, Southampton, U.K.

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 35th conference on Winter simulation: driving innovation
  • Year:
  • 2003

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Abstract

This paper discusses the problem of fitting mixture models to input data. When an input stream is an amalgam of data from different sources then such mixture models must be used if the true nature of the data is to be properly represented. A key problem is then to identify the different components of such a mixture, and in particular to determine how many components there are. This is known to be a non-regular/non-standard problem in the statistical sense and is technically notoriously difficult to handle properly using classical inferential methods. We discuss a Bayesian approach and show that there is a theoretical basis why this approach might overcome the problem. We describe the Bayesian approach explicitly and give examples showing its application.