Input modeling when simple models fail
WSC '95 Proceedings of the 27th conference on Winter simulation
Statistical analysis of simulation output
Proceedings of the 29th conference on Winter simulation
Advanced input modeling for simulation experimentation
Proceedings of the 31st conference on Winter simulation: Simulation---a bridge to the future - Volume 1
ExpertFit: total support for simulation input modeling
Proceedings of the 31st conference on Winter simulation: Simulation---a bridge to the future - Volume 1
Proceedings of the 31st conference on Winter simulation: Simulation---a bridge to the future - Volume 1
Alternative approaches for specifying input distributions and processes (panel session)
WSC' 90 Proceedings of the 22nd conference on Winter simulation
Simulation Modeling and Analysis
Simulation Modeling and Analysis
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Simulation modeling is a tool commonly used in support of intelligent decision making by senier managers, particularly for extremely complex problems. This article uses an example from the United States Army Recruiting Command to illustrate some of the statistical pitfalls an analyst may encounter when using simulation modeling. These pitfalls include conflicting results, both due to different modeling approaches and choice of input distributions, and incorrect interpretation of the simulation experimental results. The paper also provides implications for analysts who encounter these situations. The analyst who uses simulation in support of senior decision-makers must understand simulation's capabilities, limitations, and statistical underpinnings. Failing to do so can result in decisions based on incorrect information. Analysts can guard against these pitfalls through careful consideration of statistics, preparation, and communication.