Support to decision makers: the use of recursive simulation to support decisionmaking

  • Authors:
  • John B. Gilmer, Jr.;Frederick J. Sullivan

  • Affiliations:
  • Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA;Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 35th conference on Winter simulation: driving innovation
  • Year:
  • 2003

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Abstract

Recursive simulation is the technique of having simulated decisionmakers themselves use simulation to inform decisionmaking. In past research, these recursive simulation runs have evaluated the possible outcomes given that a decision was made one way or the other, allowing a simulated commander to consider the consequences of the alternatives. However, this allows only a reactive benefit, since the issue must first be framed in terms of a decision to be made. This paper explores other possibilities. It raises issues of how to represent the information about the future from projections not tied to a specific decision. Also considered is how the explicit details of what is projected might be conveyed back to the current planning context in order to make possible proactive actions.