Robustness of causal claims

  • Authors:
  • Judea Pearl

  • Affiliations:
  • University of California, Los Angeles, CA

  • Venue:
  • UAI '04 Proceedings of the 20th conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2004

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Abstract

A causal claim is any assertion that invokes causal relationships between variables, for example, that a drug has a certain effect on preventing a disease. Causal claims are established through a combination of data and a set of causal assumptions called a "causal model." A claim is robust when it is insensitive to violations of some of the causal assumptions embodied in the model. This paper gives a formal definition of this notion of robustness, and establishes a graphical condition for quantifying the degree of robustness of a given causal claim. Algorithms for computing the degree of robustness are also presented.