Branching Process Models for the Exponentially Increasing Portions of Cascading Failure Blackouts

Authors:
Ian Dobson;Benjamin A. Carreras;David E. Newman
Affiliations:
University of Wisconsin, Madison WI;Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge TN;University of Alaska, Fairbanks AK
Venue:
HICSS '05 Proceedings of the Proceedings of the 38th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS'05) - Track 2 - Volume 02
Year:
2005

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Abstract

We introduce branching process models in discrete and continuous time for the exponentially increasing phase of cascading blackouts. Cumulative line trips from real blackout data have portions consistent with these branching process models. Some initial calculations identifying parameters and using a branching process model to estimate blackout probabilities during and after the blackout are illustrated.