On the revision of probabilistic beliefs using uncertain evidence

  • Authors:
  • Hei Chan;Adnan Darwiche

  • Affiliations:
  • Computer Science Department, University of California, Los Angeles, CA;Computer Science Department, University of California, Los Angeles, CA

  • Venue:
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Year:
  • 2005

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Abstract

We revisit the problem of revising probabilistic beliefs using uncertain evidence, and report results on several major issues relating to this problem: how should one specify uncertain evidence? How should one revise a probability distribution? How should one interpret informal evidential statements? Should, and do, iterated belief revisions commute? And what guarantees can be offered on the amount of belief change induced by a particular revision? Our discussion is focused on two main methods for probabilistic revision: Jeffrey's rule of probability kinematics and Pearl's method of virtual evidence, where we analyze and unify these methods from the perspective of the questions posed above.